Shout of Inference

What inference can you draw?

As the clear night sky fades away, the sun brightens up the sky. With a resolution to make the most of the alpine sunrise, you wake up early. Your new friend has requested you to call him at five in the morning, after which you are to go to view the alpine sunrise together.

What happens at the field of wonders, at sunrise tomorrow morning?

With a face full of light, you start thinking of the happiness that is buried in the wait; you wake up earlier than usual to prepare yourself. You oblige your friend with a call at 5 a.m. right on the button.

You had hoped much, and found almost …

Unfortunately, you get a voice mail and of course, you are so vexed, you are totally gob smacked. You wait a moment, apparently in the expectation that he might call you back…

You continue to struggle with a dull look of disappointmentnn…and call him back in 5 minutes, but still no response. You call again, at regular intervals until 5:45, before you throw in the towel. Not a favorable occasion and you bear the disappointment bravely. However, clouds of anger shoot up and you start venting in discordant murmuring, “made me wake up early for nothing.”

Furious surges lead you to draw conclusions about your friendnn…that he is irresponsible, thoughtless and inconsiderate, someone who cannot be trusted. You do not know anymore whether to be furious at his playing you false, or delighted to have escaped him!

The wind of observation and the sun of realitynnare disputing which is the stronger. Until a fresh wind of observation starts blowing, you would not see reality. Till hope proves futile, you would not give up, and continue to pay attention to what is obvious to you, i.e. your friend did not show up - you are huffy and unable to settle your ruffled plumes.

A Short circuit is imminent

There is a tendency to select information that conforms to your beliefs, in order to draw conclusions. As your beliefs become more and more rigid, the selected data becomes progressively a smaller portion of the reality. You install an internal re- enforcing loop, which short circuits reality and puts you in trouble because of your thinking.

Skilled Incompetence

You cut an absurd figure with your pattern of thinking and become unmindful to the process.Your ability to draw fast conclusions is actually resting on unqualified observations. This can immensely impact your personal and professional relationships. Chris Argyris, called this situation as " Skilled Incompetence." We excel in generating unsolicited results with great panache...And the best part is-we are totally ignorant of our actions.

Do you know what is happening now?

As these thoughts follow one after the other, you are climbing an imaginary “Ladder of Inference” so deftly that you do not even notice it happening.The Ladder of Inference, developed by Chris Argyris, is a model that explains how we make consecutive and untested interpretations from select observations, and respond based on those inferences and interpretations.

Here is how your imaginary ladder of inference looks like:

1. Level One: “No response in spite of repeated calls”-(I am selecting data based on my observation).

2. Level Two: “He is irresponsible” – (I am now interpreting the data)

3. Level Three: “Cannot be trusted’- (Notice how I am drawing conclusion )

4. Level Four: “Never going to call him back”-(I have finally decided to take action based on my conclusion)

Do you recognize…

That these conclusions are based on un-verified reasoning. Recognition, as the name indicates, is a change from ignorance to knowledge.

Well after sunrise at 8 o’clock, your friend calls you backnnand says, “This morning was a complete disaster. I received a call from another friend who had an accident. I had to rush to the hospital. In the process I forgot my mobile phone at home, and could not remember your number. When I returned, I got your message.”

Crowded mercurial emotions

Slowing down in a situation like this, where emotions are running high, is not easy, especially when the meaning and the conclusions you draw are self evident. You may lop off opportunities to independently test your conclusions.

Can you quickly adjust the blazing focus to a business environment now?

The friend can be your boss and you can be a subordinate or vice-versa. Your conclusions may be safe, but you have missed an opportunity to learn.

How can You slow the process of drawing of inference?

You can’t exist without assigning meanings or drawing conclusions. But, you can certainly improve you communications through-nn>Reflection:Becoming more aware of your thinking and reasoning.nn>Advocacy: Make your thinking and reasoning more visible.nn>Inquiry: Inquiring others about their thinking and reasoning.

Here’s an example–

How You could have responded differently in the given situation?

“I want to share something with you. When I could not get you this morning, I began to wonder whether you had forgotten our appointment or just decided to ignore me. From these thoughts I doubted whether I could trust you. Does that make sense to you?

Could you let me know you view of the situation and what you were thinking?

Power lies ahead of you and danger is behind

To perfect the instrument of inference by adding meaning and context from conversations and events is an important cognitive skill. The Ladder of Inference demonstrates both the power and danger of that ability. We inadvertently exploit this tool, without our knowledge to differentiate between inferences found on observations and those based on untried premises. Successful use of this allows us to develop a greater consciousness of our thought processes by revealing the steps in our reasoning.

Epilogue

So the next time when you are in an embarrassing imbroglio, take a step back, and advance slowly on the ladder of inference. Unveil your data, reasoning, and concerns, so that the other person can better understand your thought process. It can empower you and have a positive impact on your work and personal relationships.

By Ronen Cohennhttp://www.first-level-leadership.com/index.html

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