Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management

The main feature of the foreign exchange markets over the past month has been the further sharp fall in the euro. There has been no real change in the background economic situation in the euro-zone; but there has been a serious deterioration in the financial background as doubts have increased about the ability of Greece and some other periphery countries to cope with their massive fiscal deficits and service their sovereign debts. Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management Korea: This is clearly leading to a withdrawal of international funds from the European capital markets, and is dramatically illustrated in the widening of yield spreads in the bond markets of member countries. There is still a general assumption that the stronger members will provide support for the weaker members if this proves to be necessary to prevent a default on sovereign debts. But the uncertainties have been increased by conflicting statements from the European Central Bank and some politicians about the willingness to undertake such operations, and so investors and speculators have taken evasive action, and the euro has fallen by around 10% from its peak in early-December. This fall has provided support for the other major world currencies, including the dollar; but the background situations in Japan, and in the UK, also provide reasons for concern, and so the currency markets remain in a very uncertain state. Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - It is likely that the uncertainty will continue. The US economy is clearly recovering from recession; economic conditions in Japan are very weak, and Japan appears to face the possibility of a credit downgrade if it does not take steps to reduce its massive fiscal deficit; and there have already been warnings from Standard and Poor’s that the UK also faces the possibility of a credit downgrade if there are no convincing measures to reduce its huge fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election. Prospects are therefore very difficult to assess; but our tentative conclusion is that the dollar will continue to “improve”, helped to a considerable extent by weaknesses elsewhere; and that this will allow market pressures to gradually subside as the global economic recovery continues through the year. But the possibility of a major currency crisis cannot be ignored, especially if the debt problems in Greece and other periphery countries threaten to lead to the break-up of the single currency system in Europe. It is fortunate therefore that the available evidence on the performance of the US economy is more encouraging. Non-farm payrolls fell again in December by 85,000, but are expected to have increased in January; retail sales held up well in the pre-Christmas period; manufacturing output is improving, according to the latest report from the Institute of Supply Management; and even the housing market appears to be recovering. This general situation is reflected in the first preliminary estimate from the Commerce Department of growth at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 5.7% in the final quarter of last year, a higher figure than the market had been expecting. Most economists therefore appear to be forecasting overall growth this year in the 2.5% to 3% range, after the estimated fall of 2.4% last year. Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - The Fed is clearly in no hurry to tighten its present monetary stance. The statement after the latest meeting of its Open Market Committee was more upbeat about the prospects for the economy; but shortterm interest rates were left unchanged and close to zero, and there was a clear indication that they would remain at very low levels “for an extended period”. The bank did state that it will discontinue most of its emergency lending programmes, and that it would end its purchases of mortgage securities in March; but there was no indication that it would be prepared to implement an “exit strategy” until there was convincing evidence of a sustainable economic recovery. It is also unlikely that there will be any early changes in fiscal policy.