Scenario Planning

“You can’t get there from here, but you can always get here from there...”

I clearly remember when first hearing this axiom my first reaction was to ask, “What’s the difference?” I’ve since learned that it’s a minor shift in perception but a powerful one.

When you look out to a goal 12 months into the future what do you see? If you’re like most of us you see things that you must do or overcome in order to accomplish that goal.

But when you project success at that point 12 months into the future and look back, rather than seeing what must be done as obstacles - you now see it as having accomplished them.

This minor twist in perception allows your ideas and creativity to flow much easier as you’re now focusing more on what was done rather than the limitations facing them. And that’s where the Scenario comes in.

Scenario planning has been around on the business scene since the 1970’s pioneered by Arie de Geus. In the Art of the Long View, the author describes how de Geus’s team first used Scenario Planning with Royal Dutch Shell during their strategic planning process in the 70’s.

During this process many questions were asked, but the most important turned out to be one asking them to consider what could totally ruin their plan. They wanted to know what unforeseen problems could get in the way of Shell’s success.

One scenario they discussed was an oil embargo by the Arab states so they spent time preparing for that ‘unlikely’ event. Well, history shows that the embargo indeed occurred and they were the only oil company in the world prepared for it. And since that time Scenario planning has been a big part of business.

Now, most of us don’t have businesses on that global a scale, but we do need to look to the future and create our own Scenario. To write a Scenario simply view your business at a point of success and describe what it looks like one year into the future.

It must describe tangible success such as:

Financial goals – annual revenue

Your products and services – change the mix or next generation?

Locations – new ones?

Marketing initiatives

Also, what are your boundaries or limitations?

Staffing – will it increase…reduce…stay the same?

Competition – what are they doing that will affect you?

Work space – is it adequate? Need larger space? Different?

Employee mix – what skills do you/they need to develop in order to achieve your goals?

The marketplace – is it changing?

There are probably other considerations that you’ll want to take into account, but you get the picture.

Just know that the best scenarios are simple and consist of one or two paragraphs that when composed properly paints a clear picture of success for all to see, discuss and plan for.