Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

The latest Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.3% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 2.5% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter. Browse All:Energy Market Research In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 2,26bcm by the end of the period. Turkmenistan’s share of consumption in 2010 was an estimated 3.5%, while its share of production is put at 5.4%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 4.3%, with the country accounting for 9.3% of supply. Domestic consumption trends can be expected to return to a strong growth tack from 2010 onwards, estimated at an average of 5.0% per annum. By 2015, the country could be using 160,000b/d of oil. Turkmenistan has traditionally been protective of its onshore basins, allowing international oil companies (IOCs) to participate only in offshore developments. Offshore activity should help raise national crude and gas liquids output from an estimated 216,000b/d in 2010 to 375,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is expected to increase from an estimated 42bcm to 90bcm between 2010 and 2015. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Turkmen oil and gas liquids production of 56.9%, with volumes peaking at 375,000b/d in 2015, before falling to 339,000b/d at the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 62.9% between 2010 and 2020, with growth of 5.0% per annum and the country using 204,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 42bcm to 140bcm by 2020, providing export potential increasing from an estimated 20bcm to 95bcm. Turkmenistan shares 11th place with Uzbekistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares eighth place with Croatia and Uzbekistan in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, gas reserves, and asset immaturity work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by an unappealing risk environment. Scope exists for Turkmenistan to break away from its immediate rivals and to move further up the table. Turkmenistan is in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, with few particularly high scores and progress further up the ratings unlikely over the next few quarters. Oil and gas demand growth prospects represent strong suits, putting the country in joint 10th place, alongside Slovenia. Related Reports: Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Russia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011